24.03.12
YOU CAN MAKE MONEY BETTING ON FOOTBALL
Steve Penn : ex bookmakers statistician :PROFESSIONAL FIXED ODDS FOOTBALL BETTING SERVICE : 12x, corners, bookings, under/over, asian handicaps, correct scores, half time/full time, 1st goal scorer
PROFESSIONAL, PROFITABLE, PROVEN FOOTBALL BETTING SERVICE
If come 4.50pm every Saturday during the football season you are habitually complaining to your mates about your unlucky football coupon you are not alone. Thousands upon thousands of football fans lose their hard earned cash in a similar manner every weekend and unfortunately for themselves never learn the lessons from this painful experience.
STOP, STOP, STOP, STOP, STOP.
Betting on football can be pleasurable, exciting and most importantly of all PROFITABLE but sadly far too few punters experience these moments.
As an ex industry insider I have years of experience of how the layers operate and the lengths they will go to to stay ahead of the game.
With my guidance and knowledge I can transform your shabby, slapdash and amatuerish approach to your football bets and guide you to areas and approaches used by the serious players and investors who know what it takes to turn a profit at this game.
STOP, STOP, STOP, STOP, STOP.
Betting on football can be pleasurable, exciting and most importantly of all PROFITABLE but sadly far too few punters experience these moments.
As an ex industry insider I have years of experience of how the layers operate and the lengths they will go to to stay ahead of the game.
With my guidance and knowledge I can transform your shabby, slapdash and amatuerish approach to your football bets and guide you to areas and approaches used by the serious players and investors who know what it takes to turn a profit at this game.
STOP GAMBLING : START INVESTING
Betting on football these days is massive. Bookmakers cannot wait for August as they rub their hands in anticipation at the massive returns they will run up over the impending 9 months.
98.5% OF FOOTBALL PUNTERS LOSE MONEY. FACT.
If you are one of the winning 1.5% who know how to turn a profit and are shrewd enough to get the better of the layers over the course of the season I congratulate you. Well done indeed. However the chances are if you are reading this article right now you are not one of those very astute investors. You are more likely to be accustomed to last minute equalisers, main man sent off, goals disallowed, dubious penalties and the other agonies we have all suffered when we pit our wits against the bookie.
FOOTBALL MATCHES ARE VERY, VERY UNPREDICABLE. FACT.
To go from continual losing bets to becoming a regular winner making a tidy profit is practically impossible and definately getting more difficult. Let me explain myself.
I have always been keen on sport, especially the beautiful game. I used to play but these days I am a fan with an enormous appetite for exciting games. Drives my wife insane.
EAT, DRINK & SLEEP FOOTBALL IS MY MOTTO. FACT.
Up until aged 32 I worked as a carpenter/joiner in the construction industry doing a job I disliked intensely. My big break came when I got friendly with a guy who was a manager with one of the big three chains who drank in my local. Surprisingly he already knew it was common knowledge in my town that as well as beeing a fan I was also a fairly succesful bettor on football matches . He also seemed impressed I was fairly well versed with the whole gambling industry, probably a lot more than he was. He mentioned to me he had contacts at their City Centre headquarters who worked as statisticians and asked me if it was a line of work I would like to get into. Six weeks later my tools were locked away for good and I was introduced to a whole new environment. Over the next 9 years I was exposed and became part of the secrets, tricks of the trade and the sheer scale of the lengths bookmakers will go to to ensure that the average betting shop Joe does not stand a chance. The detail statisticians go into in order to price up football matches is so complex and skillfully applied I realised that I constantly had at my finger tips a goldmine of information that could only be beneficial to my own betting routine. It was a massive edge I had when seeking standout betting opportunities and although I never revealed the extent of my future plans to my colleagues for obvious reasons I decided 12 months before I left that I was going to set myself up as a professional investor. With my wifes full support I left what I called The University, set up six online accounts with a nice even £500.00 in each account and dedicated myself to making cash and lots of it.
3 years on I now have 14 online accounts all with 4 figure sums in them after paying my share of the bills. Not bad for a guy who left school with 3 o"levels and up until aged 32 worked as a joiner. I learned the hard way about making money in this field and it took me many years before I knew I would win in the long run and make nice sized profits.
4 BASIC TITBITS WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO.
1. When large high street bookies put huge signs in their windows saying things like Arsenal to beat Stoke and Bentner to score first : a £20.00 stake wins £190.00 keep walking. Off course Arsenal will probably win and Bentner scores a lot but the facts are the odds on both events happening in the same game are very slim. In other words its a no value bet and you will more than likely lose your hard earned cash. There are always bets of this type in your local bookies but remember the rule and ignore them. If the bookmaker wants you to bet on them, this means you will more than likely lose and they will win.
2. Try to specialise in the lower divisions. All premiership teams are in the constant glare of the media, with 24/7 news coverage detailing everything that happens to them. If a leading player is injured, suspended or falls out with the manager, you will know about it in minutes.
Now think about what you know about Rotherhams match with Brentford in League 1. If Brentfords top striker is injured the day before the game, do the UK bookmakers find out about it quickly enough to change the odds when they have dozens of other matches to keep an eye on? Clubs in lower divisions do not get the same level of coverage and if you do a little research you can often get the football news before the layers change their odds. Look at the local club websites as they always have that kind of useful information.
3. Look to bet on Asian handicaps. This can be one of the best ways of betting on football. Basically with Asian handicap betting the bookie gives the team they think will be less likely to win a head start while the team they think will win are given a handicap which are described in goals or fractions of goals. Now that the draw has been removed from the equation the bookies have to have smaller margins. In normal options the percentages would be around 107% but with Asian handicap percentages are only around 103-104%. These are the best you are likely to find on offer anywhere in the market. With Asian bets you become 3% more profitable and this can make the difference between beeing up or down come the end of the season.
4.Some guidance on betting technique would be appropriate at this point.The way most serious investors wager their football bets is in big win singles.This is the easiest and most controlled way of betting and not surprisingly is the area of least profitability for the layers. It is apparent from my years of experience in the industry that many bettors prefer backing in doubles, trebles and accumulators.The reason for this it would appear is the returns seem far more attractive, when successful and initial stakes are smaller in comparison. It is all relevant over a period.A big return can be very pleasing, possibly exciting to some, but it must be viewed in line with all the other losing bets that makeup the overall picture. People who habitually bet in this way are essentially betting for funand gambling on a string of winners combining to give a jackpot payout. Of course, there is no harm in that as long as things are kept in perspective and that the backer is aware of the increased risk. If embarking on this kind of betting, it is necessary to prepare yourself for long losing runs. The outlay at times can be quite large before a reasonable return readresses the balance. It is no good betting to the amount that is available from your pocket on a day to day basis, maintain stakes at the same level and strive for the least outlay to cover the strongest selections. I have enclosed a useful table in the menu at the top of this site to show the number of doubles, trebles, and accumulators when selections are coupled in all possible combinations, sometimes known as perms. We can see at a glance that 6 selections would require an outlay for 57 bets in a full cover perm, nearly 10 times the number of selections. Any punter going for 6 winners at one go is straying into an area of high outlay. Many would convince themselves that 3 winners will get a good bit back and so the bet goes on. Now with just 1 selection less and the outlay for full cover is reduced by 31points which is a much more managle proposition for any 1 day. The mathematical formula for covering a number of selections in mixed combinations is a true mathematical calculation and cannot be altered in any way to give you the benefit of the same cover for less outlay. You can leave out any category to reduce the outlay but reduced returns will be the result. The best advice I can make is to keep the number of selections to a maximum of 5 for full cover. If on a busy day you have more selections that warrant support then for 6 selections i suggest having 20 trebles, for 7 selections 21 doubles and 8 selections 28 doubles. The problem of getting the best cover is just the same when doing the pools and trying to get 8 draws on 1 line. You get exactly what you pay for and cover. All those permutations that offer guarantees of at least so many draws in a line given a certain number correct among the total selections have no advantage over full cover. They just appear to have in the way they are presented. It is a psychological effect, thats all.
98.5% OF FOOTBALL PUNTERS LOSE MONEY. FACT.
If you are one of the winning 1.5% who know how to turn a profit and are shrewd enough to get the better of the layers over the course of the season I congratulate you. Well done indeed. However the chances are if you are reading this article right now you are not one of those very astute investors. You are more likely to be accustomed to last minute equalisers, main man sent off, goals disallowed, dubious penalties and the other agonies we have all suffered when we pit our wits against the bookie.
FOOTBALL MATCHES ARE VERY, VERY UNPREDICABLE. FACT.
To go from continual losing bets to becoming a regular winner making a tidy profit is practically impossible and definately getting more difficult. Let me explain myself.
I have always been keen on sport, especially the beautiful game. I used to play but these days I am a fan with an enormous appetite for exciting games. Drives my wife insane.
EAT, DRINK & SLEEP FOOTBALL IS MY MOTTO. FACT.
Up until aged 32 I worked as a carpenter/joiner in the construction industry doing a job I disliked intensely. My big break came when I got friendly with a guy who was a manager with one of the big three chains who drank in my local. Surprisingly he already knew it was common knowledge in my town that as well as beeing a fan I was also a fairly succesful bettor on football matches . He also seemed impressed I was fairly well versed with the whole gambling industry, probably a lot more than he was. He mentioned to me he had contacts at their City Centre headquarters who worked as statisticians and asked me if it was a line of work I would like to get into. Six weeks later my tools were locked away for good and I was introduced to a whole new environment. Over the next 9 years I was exposed and became part of the secrets, tricks of the trade and the sheer scale of the lengths bookmakers will go to to ensure that the average betting shop Joe does not stand a chance. The detail statisticians go into in order to price up football matches is so complex and skillfully applied I realised that I constantly had at my finger tips a goldmine of information that could only be beneficial to my own betting routine. It was a massive edge I had when seeking standout betting opportunities and although I never revealed the extent of my future plans to my colleagues for obvious reasons I decided 12 months before I left that I was going to set myself up as a professional investor. With my wifes full support I left what I called The University, set up six online accounts with a nice even £500.00 in each account and dedicated myself to making cash and lots of it.
3 years on I now have 14 online accounts all with 4 figure sums in them after paying my share of the bills. Not bad for a guy who left school with 3 o"levels and up until aged 32 worked as a joiner. I learned the hard way about making money in this field and it took me many years before I knew I would win in the long run and make nice sized profits.
4 BASIC TITBITS WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO.
1. When large high street bookies put huge signs in their windows saying things like Arsenal to beat Stoke and Bentner to score first : a £20.00 stake wins £190.00 keep walking. Off course Arsenal will probably win and Bentner scores a lot but the facts are the odds on both events happening in the same game are very slim. In other words its a no value bet and you will more than likely lose your hard earned cash. There are always bets of this type in your local bookies but remember the rule and ignore them. If the bookmaker wants you to bet on them, this means you will more than likely lose and they will win.
2. Try to specialise in the lower divisions. All premiership teams are in the constant glare of the media, with 24/7 news coverage detailing everything that happens to them. If a leading player is injured, suspended or falls out with the manager, you will know about it in minutes.
Now think about what you know about Rotherhams match with Brentford in League 1. If Brentfords top striker is injured the day before the game, do the UK bookmakers find out about it quickly enough to change the odds when they have dozens of other matches to keep an eye on? Clubs in lower divisions do not get the same level of coverage and if you do a little research you can often get the football news before the layers change their odds. Look at the local club websites as they always have that kind of useful information.
3. Look to bet on Asian handicaps. This can be one of the best ways of betting on football. Basically with Asian handicap betting the bookie gives the team they think will be less likely to win a head start while the team they think will win are given a handicap which are described in goals or fractions of goals. Now that the draw has been removed from the equation the bookies have to have smaller margins. In normal options the percentages would be around 107% but with Asian handicap percentages are only around 103-104%. These are the best you are likely to find on offer anywhere in the market. With Asian bets you become 3% more profitable and this can make the difference between beeing up or down come the end of the season.
4.Some guidance on betting technique would be appropriate at this point.The way most serious investors wager their football bets is in big win singles.This is the easiest and most controlled way of betting and not surprisingly is the area of least profitability for the layers. It is apparent from my years of experience in the industry that many bettors prefer backing in doubles, trebles and accumulators.The reason for this it would appear is the returns seem far more attractive, when successful and initial stakes are smaller in comparison. It is all relevant over a period.A big return can be very pleasing, possibly exciting to some, but it must be viewed in line with all the other losing bets that makeup the overall picture. People who habitually bet in this way are essentially betting for funand gambling on a string of winners combining to give a jackpot payout. Of course, there is no harm in that as long as things are kept in perspective and that the backer is aware of the increased risk. If embarking on this kind of betting, it is necessary to prepare yourself for long losing runs. The outlay at times can be quite large before a reasonable return readresses the balance. It is no good betting to the amount that is available from your pocket on a day to day basis, maintain stakes at the same level and strive for the least outlay to cover the strongest selections. I have enclosed a useful table in the menu at the top of this site to show the number of doubles, trebles, and accumulators when selections are coupled in all possible combinations, sometimes known as perms. We can see at a glance that 6 selections would require an outlay for 57 bets in a full cover perm, nearly 10 times the number of selections. Any punter going for 6 winners at one go is straying into an area of high outlay. Many would convince themselves that 3 winners will get a good bit back and so the bet goes on. Now with just 1 selection less and the outlay for full cover is reduced by 31points which is a much more managle proposition for any 1 day. The mathematical formula for covering a number of selections in mixed combinations is a true mathematical calculation and cannot be altered in any way to give you the benefit of the same cover for less outlay. You can leave out any category to reduce the outlay but reduced returns will be the result. The best advice I can make is to keep the number of selections to a maximum of 5 for full cover. If on a busy day you have more selections that warrant support then for 6 selections i suggest having 20 trebles, for 7 selections 21 doubles and 8 selections 28 doubles. The problem of getting the best cover is just the same when doing the pools and trying to get 8 draws on 1 line. You get exactly what you pay for and cover. All those permutations that offer guarantees of at least so many draws in a line given a certain number correct among the total selections have no advantage over full cover. They just appear to have in the way they are presented. It is a psychological effect, thats all.
MARKETS TO BE WARY OFF
Whenever a layer offers something new, market wise, be on your guard and try not to get sucked in.
One bet which has become very profitable for them is for both teams to score, which in all truth is a slight variation on the under/over 2.5 goals bet.
A lot of punters think that both sides scoring would mean plenty of goals but, of course, 1-1 scorelines stay in the under 2.5 goals camp. Equally, some think that one side failing to score that the game would have few goals in it, but sides winning by three or more goals to nil would take the game into the overs camp.
The number of games where one side wins by 3 or more goals to nil or where the score is 1-1 are closer than punters imagine. In other words, both sides to score is another toss of the coin job with a similar tangential relationship to the current form of both teams.
Later in the season I plan to analyse the relationship between relative form and league positions and the under/overs, both sides to score and one
or neither side to score scenarious. It is doubtful however I will uncover a flashing light revealing an area hiding hidden gold but of course for bookies the real money lies in making punters believe the bet is much easier than it really is.
Ladbrokes have started a new bet with what they call a safety net attached.
It guarantees a payout even if one of your selections fail. Basically what they are trying to do is tempt more punters to select large multiple accumulators. The safety net however comes at a price that really is not doing the punter any favours. What to remember and this may seem obvious is that five ,six, seven team accumulators are frequently let down by more than one team. Punters like to think there is always just one team which has let them down as these are the bets which stay in the mind longer due to increased disapointment at a near miss. It is that feeling this betting is trading on. Take my advice and leave well alone.
One bet which has become very profitable for them is for both teams to score, which in all truth is a slight variation on the under/over 2.5 goals bet.
A lot of punters think that both sides scoring would mean plenty of goals but, of course, 1-1 scorelines stay in the under 2.5 goals camp. Equally, some think that one side failing to score that the game would have few goals in it, but sides winning by three or more goals to nil would take the game into the overs camp.
The number of games where one side wins by 3 or more goals to nil or where the score is 1-1 are closer than punters imagine. In other words, both sides to score is another toss of the coin job with a similar tangential relationship to the current form of both teams.
Later in the season I plan to analyse the relationship between relative form and league positions and the under/overs, both sides to score and one
or neither side to score scenarious. It is doubtful however I will uncover a flashing light revealing an area hiding hidden gold but of course for bookies the real money lies in making punters believe the bet is much easier than it really is.
Ladbrokes have started a new bet with what they call a safety net attached.
It guarantees a payout even if one of your selections fail. Basically what they are trying to do is tempt more punters to select large multiple accumulators. The safety net however comes at a price that really is not doing the punter any favours. What to remember and this may seem obvious is that five ,six, seven team accumulators are frequently let down by more than one team. Punters like to think there is always just one team which has let them down as these are the bets which stay in the mind longer due to increased disapointment at a near miss. It is that feeling this betting is trading on. Take my advice and leave well alone.
SPREAD BETTING
An example of Spread Betting
As well as Asian handicaps, another form of betting I get asked about a lot is spread betting. This is a little more complex than straightforward 12x and is something I will go into with a more in depth analysis as the season progresses but the following scenario is a typical example.
Take, for example, a Premier League football match between Manchester United
and Chelsea. The bookmaker offers a spread of 10-11 on the number of corners in
the match. Punters can then ‘buy’ at the higher number quoted or ‘sell’ at the
lower value depending on how many corners they think there will be.If you think that the majority of the game will be played in the middle of the park as the two midfields jostle for position then you would likely induce that there will be few corners and thus ‘sell’ the corners at 10. If you ‘sell’ to a stake of £10, for example, then for every corner there is under 10 you win £10. So if there are only four corners in the match you win £60, however, if the number of corners is more than 10 then you lose. If there are 15 corners then you lose £50 (15-10=5 @ £10 per corner.)
Conversely if you believe that both teams will attack down the wings and thus produce a plethora of corners then you can ‘buy’ the corners. If you again ‘buy’ at £10 per unit then for every corner over 11 corners you will win £10, but for every corner under 11 corners you will lose £10.
This is a form of betting used more increasingly by serious players and is something which over the course of the season I will be introducing to my clients.
MAKE YOUR FOOTBALL BETS PAY
Any form of investing or speculating must have a sound basis for correctly assessed predictions and decisions if it is to be successful in the long term.
Betting on football matches with bookmakers, albeit a risky venture, is one of the few forms of legal betting available in the world that offers the informed backer a realistic chance of emerging an overall winner. The fact that most bookmakers survive in a business is due testimony to the haphazard approach used by the vast majority of their customers.
Its not too difficult to get into the winning group if you are prepared to put in the effort necessary to gain an edge over the layers. This site directs you to several profitable areas that can be exploited for your own gain. Our friends, whom some call the enemy, will continue to provide the opporunities within reason - it is the other backers, haphazard chancing guessers who provide the middlemen with their profits. Greed and impatience will continue to cloud any judgement that could be to their benefit and so, the game goes on.
Betting on football matches with bookmakers, albeit a risky venture, is one of the few forms of legal betting available in the world that offers the informed backer a realistic chance of emerging an overall winner. The fact that most bookmakers survive in a business is due testimony to the haphazard approach used by the vast majority of their customers.
Its not too difficult to get into the winning group if you are prepared to put in the effort necessary to gain an edge over the layers. This site directs you to several profitable areas that can be exploited for your own gain. Our friends, whom some call the enemy, will continue to provide the opporunities within reason - it is the other backers, haphazard chancing guessers who provide the middlemen with their profits. Greed and impatience will continue to cloud any judgement that could be to their benefit and so, the game goes on.
FRIDAY NIGHT EMAIL SERVICE
Please if you are serious about putting an end to long losing runs, understanding why is key. You will never win big money on a regular basis if you work full time in other industries. Whilst you are doing so I spend my days spotting the errors bookmakers make and act accordingly. My Friday night email service to all clients contains all the weekend standout money making investments along with a staking plan and advice on how to profit long term. I offer a 3 option payment plan to suit your budget and know from past recorded results and growing repeat custom I offer exceptional value for money.
SUBSCRIBE TODAY AND ENJOY THAT WINNING FEELING
All potential subscribers are advised that this is not a get rich quick scheme.
Anyone looking for immediate riches and unrealistic wealth is urged to look elsewhere.
This service is for both novice and the more advanced football bettors who are prepared to bet in a patient, professional manner which will in turn result in consistent, gradual long term profits.
SUBSCRIBE TODAY AND ENJOY THAT WINNING FEELING
All potential subscribers are advised that this is not a get rich quick scheme.
Anyone looking for immediate riches and unrealistic wealth is urged to look elsewhere.
This service is for both novice and the more advanced football bettors who are prepared to bet in a patient, professional manner which will in turn result in consistent, gradual long term profits.
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