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2012-03-25T09:13:00.004-07:00

24.03.12

Fixed odds betting advisory service
stop gambling : start investing
http://www.12xbetting.com

Hello again folks and welcome to another weekend of exciting football betting opportunities.
Unfortunately last weeks bet never really threatened to get us into profit with only Southend and Southampton doing the business.
March has been a disapointing month for us all but by sticking rigidly to proven methods and form analysis I am sure we can finish the season still nicely in profit.
Some tasty looking fixtures on the card this weekend so lets get started.

MATCH 1. Burnley v West Ham United Championship Kick Off 3.00pm

Burnley did not win in their last 6 matches.
West Ham Utd have drawn their last 4 matches. West Ham Utd have been undefeated in their last 9 matches. West Ham Utd scored at least one goal in 83% of their away matches.
Burnley has played 18 English Championship matches this season on Turf Moor. On home ground Burnley has won 6, drawn 6 and lost 6 matches. This ranks The Clarets 20th in home team performance in the English Championship.
West Ham United has played 18 English Championship matches this season away from home. On away ground West Ham United has won 10, drawn 4 and lost 4 matches. This ranks the Hammers 1st in away team performance in the English Championship.

Burnley West Ham Utd

Home Overall SCORING Overall Away
27 48 Goals scored 57 29
20 45 Goals conceded 36 18
1.5 1.29 Average goals scored 1.54 1.61
1.11 1.21 Average goals conceded 0.97 1
27.8% 27.0% Clean sheets 37.8% 44.4%
22.2% 27.0% Failed to score 18.9% 16.7%
44.4% 45.9% Matches over 2.5 goals 43.2% 44.4%
55.6% 54.1% Matches under 2.5 goals 56.8% 55.6%

Home Away HOME / AWAY ADVANTAGE Home Away
49.0% 51.0% % Points 50.0% 50.0%
56.3% 43.8% % Goals scored 49.1% 50.9%
44.4% 55.6% % Goals conceded 50.0% 50.0%
Last 8 matches
21 Mar Ipswich Town. - BUR 1 - 0 1 - 1 WHU - Middlesbroug. 20 Mar
18 Mar Cardiff City. - BUR 0 - 0 1 - 1 Leeds Utd - WHU 17 Mar
10 Mar BUR - Crystal Pala. 1 - 1 1 - 1 WHU - Doncaster 10 Mar
3 Mar Watford - BUR 3 - 2 1 - 1 WHU - Watford 7 Mar
25 Feb BUR - Millwall 1 - 3 0 - 2 Cardiff City - WHU 4 Mar
17 Feb Reading - BUR 1 - 0 0 - 0 WHU - Crystal Pala. 25 Feb
14 Feb BUR - Barnsley 2 - 0 1 - 4 Blackpool - WHU 21 Feb
11 Feb Southampton - BUR 2 - 0 1 - 1 WHU - Southampton 14 Feb

Last 4 matches (Home) Last 4 matches (Away)
10 Mar BUR - Crystal Pala. 1 - 1 1 - 1 Leeds Utd - WHU 17 Mar
25 Feb BUR - Millwall 1 - 3 0 - 2 Cardiff City - WHU 4 Mar
14 Feb BUR - Barnsley 2 - 0 1 - 4 Blackpool - WHU 21 Feb
4 Feb BUR - Peterborough 1 - 1 5 - 1 Ipswich Town - WHU 31 Jan

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
6 14 Wins 19 10
6 7 Draws 11 4
6 16 Defeats 7 4

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
33.3% 37.8% Winning % 51.4% 55.6%
33.3% 18.9% Drawing % 29.7% 22.2%
33.3% 43.2% Losing % 18.9% 22.2%
Burnley won at Upton Park in December but since then their form has been dire. The Hammers are still looking to secure automatic promotion whilst Burnley who are just about safe from relegation have very little to play for.
West Ham have the best away form in the Championship and with most layers offering 11/8 for the away win that is in my opinion excellent value.

SELECTION : WEST HAM 11/8

MATCH 2. Leyton Orient v Sheffield Wednesday League 1. Kick Off 3.00pm

Sheffield Wed have been undefeated in their last 6 matches. Sheffield Wed scored at least one goal in 84% of their away matches.
Leyton Orient has played 18 English League One matches this season on Brisbane Road. On home ground Leyton Orient has won 5, drawn 5 and lost 8 matches. This ranks the O’s 22nd in home team performance in the English League One.
Sheffield Wednesday has played 19 English League One matches this season away from home. On away ground Sheffield Wednesday has won 8, drawn 4 and lost 7 matches. This ranks the Owls 5th in away team performance in the English League One.
Leyton Orient Sheffield Wed

Home Overall SCORING Overall Away
18 40 Goals scored 66 27
24 55 Goals conceded 45 27
1 1.11 Average goals scored 1.74 1.42
1.33 1.52 Average goals conceded 1.18 1.42
27.8% 25.0% Clean sheets 28.9% 21.1%
22.2% 25.0% Failed to score 15.8% 15.8%
44.4% 47.2% Matches over 2.5 goals 60.5% 57.9%
55.6% 52.8% Matches under 2.5 goals 39.5% 42.1%

Home Away HOME / AWAY ADVANTAGE Home Away
46.5% 53.5% % Points 60.6% 39.4%
45.0% 55.0% % Goals scored 59.1% 40.9%
43.6% 56.4% % Goals conceded 40.0% 60.0%

Last 8 matches
20 Mar Milton Keyne. - LEY 4 - 1 2 - 2 Wed - Walsall 20 Mar
17 Mar LEY - Brentford 2 - 0 1 - 2 Notts County - Wed 17 Mar
10 Mar Tranmere Rov. - LEY 2 - 0 3 - 0 Wed - Bournemouth 10 Mar
6 Mar Wycombe - LEY 4 - 2 4 - 1 Wed - Bury 6 Mar
3 Mar LEY - Walsall 1 - 1 0 - 0 Rochdale - Wed 3 Mar
25 Feb Bury - LEY 1 - 1 1 - 0 Wed - Sheffield Ut. 26 Feb
18 Feb LEY - Scunthorpe U. 1 - 3 1 - 0 Chesterfield - Wed 18 Feb
14 Feb Bournemouth - LEY 1 - 2 0 - 1 Wed - Stevenage 14 Feb

Last 4 matches (Home) Last 4 matches (Away)
17 Mar LEY - Brentford 2 - 0 1 - 2 Notts County - Wed 17 Mar
3 Mar LEY - Walsall 1 - 1 0 - 0 Rochdale - Wed 3 Mar
18 Feb LEY - Scunthorpe U. 1 - 3 1 - 0 Chesterfield - Wed 18 Feb
28 Jan LEY - Colchester U. 0 - 1 2 - 1 Exeter City - Wed 11 Feb

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
5 11 Wins 21 8
5 10 Draws 8 4
8 15 Defeats 9 7

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
27.8% 30.6% Winning % 55.3% 42.1%
27.8% 27.8% Drawing % 21.1% 21.1%
44.4% 41.7% Losing % 23.7% 36.8%

When looking at Leyton Orient home performance in league points, Leyton Orient’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the bottom 6 with an average of 1.11 points per game.

Against opponent such as Sheffield Wednesday that is currently placed in the top 6 of the English League One Leyton Orient has managed to collect an average of 0.71 points in 7 matches this season. Concerning matches played at home against the top 6 this season Leyton Orient has collected 1 point on average in 4 matches.
When looking at Sheffield Wednesday away performance in league points, Sheffield Wednesday’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the mid 12 with an average of 2 points per game.
Against opponent such as Leyton Orient who is currently placed in the mid 12 of the English League One Sheffield Wednesday has managed to collect an average of 1.86 points in 7 matches this season. When looking at matches played away against the mid 12 this season Sheffield Wednesday has collected 2 points on average in 3 matches.
Wednesday have hit form at an important stage of the season as they chase that automatic promotion place and cannot afford to slip up in East London. Back the owls for the 3 points. 11/10 is widely available.
SELECTION : SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY 11/10

MATCH 3. Walsall v Stevenage League 1. Kick Off 3.00pm
Stevenage have been undefeated in their last 6 matches.

Walsall has played 18 English League One matches this season on Bescot Stadium. On home ground Walsall has won 5, drawn 7 and lost 6 matches. This ranks the Saddlers 17th in home team performance in the English League One.
Stevenage Borough has played 19 English League One matches this season away from home. On away ground Stevenage Borough has won 7, drawn 7 and lost 5 matches. This ranks Boro 6th in away team performance in the English League One.

Walsall Stevenage

Home Overall SCORING Overall Away
19 37 Goals scored 50 24
21 43 Goals conceded 33 15
1.05 1 Average goals scored 1.39 1.26
1.16 1.16 Average goals conceded 0.92 0.78
27.8% 27.0% Clean sheets 33.3% 31.6%
33.3% 27.0% Failed to score 36.1% 36.8%
33.3% 35.1% Matches over 2.5 goals 38.9% 26.3%
66.7% 64.9% Matches under 2.5 goals 61.1% 73.7%

Home Away HOME / AWAY ADVANTAGE Home Away
57.9% 42.1% % Points 50.0% 50.0%
51.4% 48.6% % Goals scored 52.0% 48.0%
48.8% 51.2% % Goals conceded 54.5% 45.5%

Last 8 matches
20 Mar Sheffield We. - WAL 2 - 2 0 - 0 STE - Colchester U. 20 Mar
17 Mar Yeovil Town - WAL 2 - 1 0 - 0 Hartlepool - STE 17 Mar
10 Mar WAL - Hartlepool 0 - 0 1 - 0 STE - Oldham Athle. 13 Mar
6 Mar WAL - Sheffield Ut. 3 - 2 2 - 2 STE - Chesterfield. 10 Mar
3 Mar Leyton Orien. - WAL 1 - 1 1 - 1 Exeter City - STE 3 Mar
25 Feb Preston - WAL 0 - 0 2 - 2 STE - Huddersfield. 28 Feb
21 Feb Scunthorpe U. - WAL 0 - 1 2 - 0 Charlton - STE 25 Feb
18 Feb WAL - Wycombe 2 - 0 1 - 0 Notts County - STE 22 Feb

Last 4 matches (Home) Last 4 matches (Away)
10 Mar WAL - Hartlepool 0 - 0 0 - 0 Hartlepool - STE 17 Mar
6 Mar WAL - Sheffield Ut. 3 - 2 1 - 1 Exeter City - STE 3 Mar
18 Feb WAL - Wycombe 2 - 0 2 - 0 Charlton - STE 25 Feb
31 Jan WAL - Notts County 0 - 1 1 - 0 Notts County - STE 22 Feb

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
5 7 Wins 14 7
7 17 Draws 14 7
6 13 Defeats 8 5

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
27.8% 18.9% Winning % 38.9% 36.8%
38.9% 45.9% Drawing % 38.9% 36.8%
33.3% 35.1% Losing % 22.2% 26.3%

When looking at Walsall home performance in league points, Walsall’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the top 6 with an average of 1.6 points per game.
Against opponent such as Stevenage Borough that is currently placed in the mid 12 of the English League One Walsall has managed to collect an average of 0.5 points in 6 matches this season. Concerning matches played at home against the mid 12 this season Walsall has collected 0.5 points on average in 2 matches.
When looking at Stevenage Borough away performance in league points, Stevenage Borough’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the bottom 6 with an average of 1.91 points per game.
Against opponent such as Walsall who is currently placed in the bottom 6 of the English League One Stevenage Borough has managed to collect an average of 1.7 points in 20 matches this season. When looking at matches played away against the bottom 6 this season Stevenage Borough has collected 1.91 points on average in 11 matches.
Stevenage are still in the hunt for a play off spot whilst Walsall are just about safe. All the statistics point to another away win.
The odds are decent with 6/4 widely available.
SELECTION : STEVENAGE BOROUGH 6/4

Match 4. Hereford v Crewe Alexander League 2. Kick Off 3.00pm
Hereford conceded at least one goal in 84% of their home matches. Hereford have lost 63% of their home matches.
Crewe Alexandra have been undefeated in their last 8 matches. Crewe Alexandra scored at least one goal in each of their last 8 matches.
Hereford United has played 19 English League Two matches this season on Edgar Street. On home ground Hereford United has won 4, drawn 3 and lost 12 matches. This ranks the Gills 24th in home team performance in the English League Two.
Crewe Alexandra has played 19 English League Two matches this season away from home. On away ground Crewe Alexandra has won 8, drawn 3 and lost 8 matches. This ranks the Spireites 7th in away team performance in the English League Two.

Hereford Crewe Alexandra

Home Overall SCORING Overall Away
19 41 Goals scored 55 24
37 62 Goals conceded 52 27
1 1.07 Average goals scored 1.45 1.26
1.94 1.63 Average goals conceded 1.37 1.42
15.8% 21.1% Clean sheets 21.1% 21.1%
26.3% 31.6% Failed to score 23.7% 31.6%
52.6% 42.1% Matches over 2.5 goals 47.4% 42.1%
47.4% 57.9% Matches under 2.5 goals 52.6% 57.9%

Home Away HOME / AWAY ADVANTAGE Home Away
42.9% 57.1% % Points 53.4% 46.6%
46.3% 53.7% % Goals scored 56.4% 43.6%
59.7% 40.3% % Goals conceded 48.1% 51.9%

Last 8 matches
20 Mar Port Vale - HER 1 - 0 1 - 0 CRE - Bradford 20 Mar
17 Mar HER - Southend Utd 2 - 3 2 - 0 CRE - Swindon Town. 17 Mar
10 Mar Morecambe - HER 0 - 1 3 - 4 Gillingham - CRE 10 Mar
6 Mar Macclesfield. - HER 2 - 2 1 - 1 Rotherham - CRE 6 Mar
3 Mar HER - AFC Wimbledo. 2 - 1 1 - 1 CRE - Shrewsbury T. 3 Mar
28 Feb Gillingham - HER 5 - 4 1 - 1 Port Vale - CRE 28 Feb
25 Feb Bradford - HER 1 - 1 3 - 3 CRE - AFC Wimbledo. 25 Feb
18 Feb HER - Swindon Town 1 - 2 2 - 0 CRE - Accrington 21 Feb

Last 4 matches (Home) Last 4 matches (Away)
17 Mar HER - Southend Utd 2 - 3 3 - 4 Gillingham - CRE 10 Mar
3 Mar HER - AFC Wimbledo. 2 - 1 1 - 1 Rotherham - CRE 6 Mar
18 Feb HER - Swindon Town 1 - 2 1 - 1 Port Vale - CRE 28 Feb
11 Feb HER - Cheltenham T. 1 - 1 1 - 0 Southend Utd - CRE 18 Feb

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
4 8 Wins 17 8
3 11 Draws 7 3
12 19 Defeats 14 8

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
21.1% 21.1% Winning % 44.7% 42.1%
15.8% 28.9% Drawing % 18.4% 15.8%
63.2% 50.0% Losing % 36.8% 42.1%

When looking at Hereford United home performance in league points, Hereford United’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the bottom 6 with an average of 1.18 points per game.

Against opponent such as Crewe Alexandra that is currently placed in the mid 12 of the English League Two Hereford United has managed to collect an average of 0.17 points in 6 matches this season. Concerning matches played at home against the mid 12 this season Hereford United has collected 0 points on average in 3 matches.
When looking at Crewe Alexandra away performance in league points, Crewe Alexandra’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the mid 12 with an average of 2.33 points per game.
Against opponent such as Hereford United who is currently placed in the bottom 6 of the English League Two Crewe Alexandra has managed to collect an average of 1.64 points in 22 matches this season. When looking at matches played away against the bottom 6 this season Crewe Alexandra has collected 1.42 points on average in 12 matches.
Crewe still have ambitions for the play offs and are in decent form. 8/5 is widely available and that is massive against a dire Hereford outfit.
Away win.
SELECTION : CREWE ALEXANDER 8/5

MATCH 5. Aberdeen v Inverness CT Scottish Premier Kick Off 3.00pm
Inverness did not win in their last 6 matches. Inverness conceded at least one goal in 93% of their away matches.

Aberdeen FC has played 15 Scottish Premier League matches this season on Pittodrie Stadium. On home ground Aberdeen FC has won 5, drawn 7 and lost 3 matches. This ranks The Dons 5th in home team performance in the Scottish Premier League.
Inverness CT has played 15 Scottish Premier League matches this season away from home. On away ground Inverness CT has won 3, drawn 3 and lost 9 matches. This ranks The Saints 11th in away team performance in the Scottish Premier League.
Aberdeen Inverness

Home Overall SCORING Overall Away
18 29 Goals scored 33 18
12 33 Goals conceded 50 29
1.2 0.96 Average goals scored 1.14 1.2
0.8 1.1 Average goals conceded 1.72 1.93
46.7% 30.0% Clean sheets 10.3% 6.7%
33.3% 43.3% Failed to score 31.0% 33.3%
46.7% 43.3% Matches over 2.5 goals 51.7% 60.0%
53.3% 56.7% Matches under 2.5 goals 48.3% 40.0%

Home Away HOME / AWAY ADVANTAGE Home Away
66.7% 33.3% % Points 57.1% 42.9%
62.1% 37.9% % Goals scored 45.5% 54.5%
36.4% 63.6% % Goals conceded 42.0% 58.0%

Last 8 matches
17 Mar Motherwell - ABE 1 - 0 1 - 1 ICT - Kilmarnock 10 Mar
3 Mar ABE - Celtic 1 - 1 3 - 0 Dundee Utd - ICT 5 Mar
25 Feb St Mirren - ABE 1 - 1 1 - 4 ICT - Rangers 26 Feb
19 Feb ABE - St Johnstone 0 - 0 1 - 1 Dunfermline - ICT 18 Feb
11 Feb Hibernian - ABE 0 - 0 1 - 0 Celtic - ICT 11 Feb
28 Jan ABE - Dunfermline 1 - 0 0 - 0 ICT - St Mirren 28 Jan
21 Jan Rangers - ABE 1 - 1 1 - 0 ICT - Hearts 21 Jan
14 Jan ABE - Kilmarnock 0 - 0 0 - 1 Motherwell - ICT 14 Jan

Last 4 matches (Home) Last 4 matches (Away)
3 Mar ABE - Celtic 1 - 1 3 - 0 Dundee Utd - ICT 5 Mar
19 Feb ABE - St Johnstone 0 - 0 1 - 1 Dunfermline - ICT 18 Feb
28 Jan ABE - Dunfermline 1 - 0 1 - 0 Celtic - ICT 11 Feb
14 Jan ABE - Kilmarnock 0 - 0 0 - 1 Motherwell - ICT 14 Jan

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
5 7 Wins 7 3
7 12 Draws 7 3
3 11 Defeats 15 9

Home Overall MATCHES Overall Away
33.3% 23.3% Winning % 24.1% 20.0%
46.7% 40.0% Drawing % 24.1% 20.0%
20.0% 36.7% Losing % 51.7% 60.0%

When looking at Aberdeen FC home performance in league points, Aberdeen FC’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the mid 0 with an average of 1.47 points per game.

Against opponent such as Inverness CT that is currently placed in the bottom 6 of the Scottish Premier League Aberdeen FC has managed to collect an average of 0 points in 0 matches this season. Concerning matches played at home against the bottom 6 this season Aberdeen FC has collected 0 points on average in 0 matches.
When looking at Inverness CT away performance in league points, Inverness CT’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the mid 0 with an average of 0.8 points per game.
Against opponent such as Aberdeen FC who is currently placed in the bottom 6 of the Scottish Premier League Inverness CT has managed to collect an average of 0 points in 0 matches this season. When looking at matches played away against the bottom 6 this season Inverness CT has collected 0 points on average in 0 matches.
Both clubs have had poor seasons but home advantage will give Aberdeen the edge in this fixture.
6/5 is widely available and is decent value.

SELECTION : ABERDEEN 6/5

SUMMARY

West Ham 11/8
Sheffield Wednesday 11/10
Stevenage Borough 6/4
Crewe Alexander 8/5
Aberdeen 6/5

Bet Type Lucky 31
Stake 5 points
Best Bookmaker : Coral

Best of luck folks and enjoy the football.

Steve.

Latest Value Bets

2012-03-05T09:54:00.002-08:00

Is English Football Going Backwards

2012-03-01T08:14:00.001-08:00

12xbetting.com views on England v Holland
Mixed responses in the mainstream press today following Englands 3-2 defeat to Holland at Wembley last night.
Stuart Pearce selected a young side in what is likely to be his only game in charge of the national side following Fabio Capello`s resignation. The thinking behind his decision was to experiment with different personnel as playing Lampard, Terry and Cole for example would not tell him what he did not already know about the Chelsea trio. This off course is perfectly correct. However this then begs the question what exactly did he learn from last nights friendly? My instinct is last nights defeat only confirmed what non biased interested parties already knew. English football at International level is going backwards.
The commentator pre match quite gleefully told us this was a match which according to FIFA rankings was between the fourth and fifth best ranked sides in world. Not for him the idea of England ranking at number five might be ever so slightly fanciful.
To be fair the Dutch did field a very strong line up and were the World Cup runners up but once the match started it followed an all to all familiar pattern.
The ease with which their players were composed on the ball contrasts sharply to Englands lack of real technical ability which no interim boss or even the new guy at the healm will be able to rectify.
As a fan I find this deeply depressing and with the Euros on the horizon I find myself believing qualifying from the group would be exceeding my expectations.
Scott Parker needs gifted footballers along side him in midfield to be effective, something England are bereft of and the fact he was captain shows the real lack of outstanding footballers in the engine room of the side.
Joe Hart is a first class goalkeeper, Ashley Cole on his day is as good a full back as anyone and Wayne Rooney although over hyped is capable of outstanding moments although we are still waiting on big International occassions.
Last night showed the future is not good enough to achieve success any time soon and I believe whoever is in charge in the summer will go with the tried and tested. What is the alternative?
It is becoming accepted that a new manager will not be appointed anytime soon which all points to Harry Redknap taking the reins at the end of the season. I for one do not believe that the media darling Harry will make the slightest bit difference to Englands fortunes. Beeing a cheeky chappie cockney and playing along with the hacks at a press conference does not hide the fact Harry does not have an outstanding CV.
Patriotic yes, got Spurs playing good football yes, but a winner at the highest level?
When Capello became the boss Harry was lavish in his praise saying how much he respected the Italian and that if he could not do anything with England no one could. Short memories indeed as Fabio was told good riddance.
Until England stop this notion that the national side continually under achieves and accepts that our game is in decline and we do not have players good enough at top level the sooner we can start to address the problem.
Good luck to whoever picks up the poisoned chalice.

PROFESSIONAL, PROFITABLE, PROVEN FOOTBALL BETTING SERVICE

2012-02-28T15:30:00.000-08:00

If come 4.50pm every Saturday during the football season you are habitually complaining to your mates about your unlucky football coupon you are not alone. Thousands upon thousands of football fans lose their hard earned cash in a similar manner every weekend and unfortunately for themselves never learn the lessons from this painful experience.
STOP, STOP, STOP, STOP, STOP.
Betting on football can be pleasurable, exciting and most importantly of all PROFITABLE but sadly far too few punters experience these moments.
As an ex industry insider I have years of experience of how the layers operate and the lengths they will go to to stay ahead of the game.
With my guidance and knowledge I can transform your shabby, slapdash and amatuerish approach to your football bets and guide you to areas and approaches used by the serious players and investors who know what it takes to turn a profit at this game.

STOP GAMBLING : START INVESTING

2012-02-22T11:47:00.000-08:00

Betting on football these days is massive. Bookmakers cannot wait for August as they rub their hands in anticipation at the massive returns they will run up over the impending 9 months.

98.5% OF FOOTBALL PUNTERS LOSE MONEY. FACT.

If you are one of the winning 1.5% who know how to turn a profit and are shrewd enough to get the better of the layers over the course of the season I congratulate you. Well done indeed. However the chances are if you are reading this article right now you are not one of those very astute investors. You are more likely to be accustomed to last minute equalisers, main man sent off, goals disallowed, dubious penalties and the other agonies we have all suffered when we pit our wits against the bookie.

FOOTBALL MATCHES ARE VERY, VERY UNPREDICABLE. FACT.

To go from continual losing bets to becoming a regular winner making a tidy profit is practically impossible and definately getting more difficult. Let me explain myself.
I have always been keen on sport, especially the beautiful game. I used to play but these days I am a fan with an enormous appetite for exciting games. Drives my wife insane.

EAT, DRINK & SLEEP FOOTBALL IS MY MOTTO. FACT.

Up until aged 32 I worked as a carpenter/joiner in the construction industry doing a job I disliked intensely. My big break came when I got friendly with a guy who was a manager with one of the big three chains who drank in my local. Surprisingly he already knew it was common knowledge in my town that as well as beeing a fan I was also a fairly succesful bettor on football matches . He also seemed impressed I was fairly well versed with the whole gambling industry, probably a lot more than he was. He mentioned to me he had contacts at their City Centre headquarters who worked as statisticians and asked me if it was a line of work I would like to get into. Six weeks later my tools were locked away for good and I was introduced to a whole new environment. Over the next 9 years I was exposed and became part of the secrets, tricks of the trade and the sheer scale of the lengths bookmakers will go to to ensure that the average betting shop Joe does not stand a chance. The detail statisticians go into in order to price up football matches is so complex and skillfully applied I realised that I constantly had at my finger tips a goldmine of information that could only be beneficial to my own betting routine. It was a massive edge I had when seeking standout betting opportunities and although I never revealed the extent of my future plans to my colleagues for obvious reasons I decided 12 months before I left that I was going to set myself up as a professional investor. With my wifes full support I left what I called The University, set up six online accounts with a nice even £500.00 in each account and dedicated myself to making cash and lots of it.
3 years on I now have 14 online accounts all with 4 figure sums in them after paying my share of the bills. Not bad for a guy who left school with 3 o"levels and up until aged 32 worked as a joiner. I learned the hard way about making money in this field and it took me many years before I knew I would win in the long run and make nice sized profits.

4 BASIC TITBITS WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO.

1. When large high street bookies put huge signs in their windows saying things like Arsenal to beat Stoke and Bentner to score first : a £20.00 stake wins £190.00 keep walking. Off course Arsenal will probably win and Bentner scores a lot but the facts are the odds on both events happening in the same game are very slim. In other words its a no value bet and you will more than likely lose your hard earned cash. There are always bets of this type in your local bookies but remember the rule and ignore them. If the bookmaker wants you to bet on them, this means you will more than likely lose and they will win.

2. Try to specialise in the lower divisions. All premiership teams are in the constant glare of the media, with 24/7 news coverage detailing everything that happens to them. If a leading player is injured, suspended or falls out with the manager, you will know about it in minutes.
Now think about what you know about Rotherhams match with Brentford in League 1. If Brentfords top striker is injured the day before the game, do the UK bookmakers find out about it quickly enough to change the odds when they have dozens of other matches to keep an eye on? Clubs in lower divisions do not get the same level of coverage and if you do a little research you can often get the football news before the layers change their odds. Look at the local club websites as they always have that kind of useful information.

3. Look to bet on Asian handicaps. This can be one of the best ways of betting on football. Basically with Asian handicap betting the bookie gives the team they think will be less likely to win a head start while the team they think will win are given a handicap which are described in goals or fractions of goals. Now that the draw has been removed from the equation the bookies have to have smaller margins. In normal options the percentages would be around 107% but with Asian handicap percentages are only around 103-104%. These are the best you are likely to find on offer anywhere in the market. With Asian bets you become 3% more profitable and this can make the difference between beeing up or down come the end of the season.

4.Some guidance on betting technique would be appropriate at this point.The way most serious investors wager their football bets is in big win singles.This is the easiest and most controlled way of betting and not surprisingly is the area of least profitability for the layers. It is apparent from my years of experience in the industry that many bettors prefer backing in doubles, trebles and accumulators.The reason for this it would appear is the returns seem far more attractive, when successful and initial stakes are smaller in comparison. It is all relevant over a period.A big return can be very pleasing, possibly exciting to some, but it must be viewed in line with all the other losing bets that makeup the overall picture. People who habitually bet in this way are essentially betting for funand gambling on a string of winners combining to give a jackpot payout. Of course, there is no harm in that as long as things are kept in perspective and that the backer is aware of the increased risk. If embarking on this kind of betting, it is necessary to prepare yourself for long losing runs. The outlay at times can be quite large before a reasonable return readresses the balance. It is no good betting to the amount that is available from your pocket on a day to day basis, maintain stakes at the same level and strive for the least outlay to cover the strongest selections. I have enclosed a useful table in the menu at the top of this site to show the number of doubles, trebles, and accumulators when selections are coupled in all possible combinations, sometimes known as perms. We can see at a glance that 6 selections would require an outlay for 57 bets in a full cover perm, nearly 10 times the number of selections. Any punter going for 6 winners at one go is straying into an area of high outlay. Many would convince themselves that 3 winners will get a good bit back and so the bet goes on. Now with just 1 selection less and the outlay for full cover is reduced by 31points which is a much more managle proposition for any 1 day. The mathematical formula for covering a number of selections in mixed combinations is a true mathematical calculation and cannot be altered in any way to give you the benefit of the same cover for less outlay. You can leave out any category to reduce the outlay but reduced returns will be the result. The best advice I can make is to keep the number of selections to a maximum of 5 for full cover. If on a busy day you have more selections that warrant support then for 6 selections i suggest having 20 trebles, for 7 selections 21 doubles and 8 selections 28 doubles. The problem of getting the best cover is just the same when doing the pools and trying to get 8 draws on 1 line. You get exactly what you pay for and cover. All those permutations that offer guarantees of at least so many draws in a line given a certain number correct among the total selections have no advantage over full cover. They just appear to have in the way they are presented. It is a psychological effect, thats all.

MARKETS TO BE WARY OFF

2012-02-08T15:08:00.000-08:00

Whenever a layer offers something new, market wise, be on your guard and try not to get sucked in.
One bet which has become very profitable for them is for both teams to score, which in all truth is a slight variation on the under/over 2.5 goals bet.
A lot of punters think that both sides scoring would mean plenty of goals but, of course, 1-1 scorelines stay in the under 2.5 goals camp. Equally, some think that one side failing to score that the game would have few goals in it, but sides winning by three or more goals to nil would take the game into the overs camp.
The number of games where one side wins by 3 or more goals to nil or where the score is 1-1 are closer than punters imagine. In other words, both sides to score is another toss of the coin job with a similar tangential relationship to the current form of both teams.
Later in the season I plan to analyse the relationship between relative form and league positions and the under/overs, both sides to score and one
or neither side to score scenarious. It is doubtful however I will uncover a flashing light revealing an area hiding hidden gold but of course for bookies the real money lies in making punters believe the bet is much easier than it really is.
Ladbrokes have started a new bet with what they call a safety net attached.
It guarantees a payout even if one of your selections fail. Basically what they are trying to do is tempt more punters to select large multiple accumulators. The safety net however comes at a price that really is not doing the punter any favours. What to remember and this may seem obvious is that five ,six, seven team accumulators are frequently let down by more than one team. Punters like to think there is always just one team which has let them down as these are the bets which stay in the mind longer due to increased disapointment at a near miss. It is that feeling this betting is trading on. Take my advice and leave well alone.

SPREAD BETTING

2012-02-07T13:30:00.000-08:00

An example of Spread Betting

As well as Asian handicaps, another form of betting I get asked about a lot is spread betting. This is a little more complex than straightforward 12x and is something I will go into with a more in depth analysis as the season progresses but the following scenario is a typical example.

Take, for example, a Premier League football match between Manchester United and Chelsea. The bookmaker offers a spread of 10-11 on the number of corners in the match. Punters can then ‘buy’ at the higher number quoted or ‘sell’ at the lower value depending on how many corners they think there will be.
If you think that the majority of the game will be played in the middle of the park as the two midfields jostle for position then you would likely induce that there will be few corners and thus ‘sell’ the corners at 10. If you ‘sell’ to a stake of £10, for example, then for every corner there is under 10 you win £10. So if there are only four corners in the match you win £60, however, if the number of corners is more than 10 then you lose. If there are 15 corners then you lose £50 (15-10=5 @ £10 per corner.)
Conversely if you believe that both teams will attack down the wings and thus produce a plethora of corners then you can ‘buy’ the corners. If you again ‘buy’ at £10 per unit then for every corner over 11 corners you will win £10, but for every corner under 11 corners you will lose £10.
This is a form of betting used more increasingly by serious players and is something which over the course of the season I will be introducing to my clients.

MAKE YOUR FOOTBALL BETS PAY

2012-02-06T14:32:00.000-08:00

Any form of investing or speculating must have a sound basis for correctly assessed predictions and decisions if it is to be successful in the long term.
Betting on football matches with bookmakers, albeit a risky venture, is one of the few forms of legal betting available in the world that offers the informed backer a realistic chance of emerging an overall winner. The fact that most bookmakers survive in a business is due testimony to the haphazard approach used by the vast majority of their customers.
Its not too difficult to get into the winning group if you are prepared to put in the effort necessary to gain an edge over the layers. This site directs you to several profitable areas that can be exploited for your own gain. Our friends, whom some call the enemy, will continue to provide the opporunities within reason - it is the other backers, haphazard chancing guessers who provide the middlemen with their profits. Greed and impatience will continue to cloud any judgement that could be to their benefit and so, the game goes on.

FRIDAY NIGHT EMAIL SERVICE

2012-02-02T15:32:00.000-08:00

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